Tech-Stock Boom Pits AI Against the Fed
Investors can’t agree whether rally looks like repeat of 1999 or start of something bigger投资者无法同意反弹看起来像是1999年的重演还是更大规模的开始
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作者：大谷茜
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和阿米娜·尼亚斯
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Meta Platforms was one of the tech companies on which Wall Street made bullish bets last week. PHOTO: TOBIAS SCHWARZ/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESMeta Platforms是华尔街上周看涨押注的科技公司之一。照片：托比亚斯·施瓦茨/法新社/盖蒂图片社
Technology stocks are on a tear.科技股正在流泪。
Investors can’t agree on whether their recent run looks like the prelude to an eventual bust—like that of the dot-com era—or the start of a more durable rally.投资者无法就他们最近的表现是否看起来像最终萧条的前奏（如互联网时代）或更持久的反弹的开始达成一致。
Hype around artificial intelligence has helped drive shares of technology companies to records this year. The rally has only intensified heading into the end of the quarter.围绕人工智能的炒作帮助推动科技公司的股价今年创下纪录。反弹在本季度末才加剧。
The Nasdaq Composite is coming off its eighth consecutive weekly gain, its longest streak since a 10-week run through March 2019. Individual investors have been snapping up shares of technology-focused companies, with data from Vanda Research showing the group poured more money into Tesla than any other stock last week. Options bets have exploded. The most popular contracts traded Friday were bullish bets on Tesla, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple and Meta Platforms, according to data from Trade Alert.纳斯达克综合指数连续第八周上涨，这是自2019年3月连续10周上涨以来最长的连涨。个人投资者一直在抢购以技术为重点的公司的股票，Vanda Research的数据显示，该集团上周向特斯拉投入的资金比其他任何股票都多。期权赌注已经爆炸式增长。根据Trade Alert的数据，周五交易的最受欢迎的合约是对特斯拉，英伟达，先进微设备，苹果和Meta Platforms的看涨押注。
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE 您可能还喜欢Pope Francis Leaves Hospital Nine Days After Abdominal Surgery3:05Paused4:12/5:40TAP FOR SOUNDWSJ breaks down how Nvidia got to its $1 trillion market cap. Photo illustration: Annie Zhao《华尔街日报》分析了英伟达如何达到1万亿美元的市值。图解：赵安妮
Investors and analysts who believe the rally has more room to run say that software developers, chip makers and other companies investing money in artificial intelligence have the potential to be at the forefront of a technology that could transform society in the coming years. 认为反弹有更大空间的投资者和分析师表示，软件开发商、芯片制造商和其他投资于人工智能的公司有可能在未来几年内站在可能改变社会的技术的最前沿。
“I don’t view this as 1999,” said Dan Ives, senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities, referring to the run-up in dot-com companies that preceded a painful market selloff the following year. “我不认为这是1999年，”Wedbush Securities高级股票研究分析师Dan Ives表示，他指的是第二年痛苦的市场抛售之前互联网公司的上涨。
Others are more skeptical. They say previous boom-and-bust cycles have taught them that it is more difficult than it might seem to pick out the handful of companies that could ultimately dominate a given industry over the long run. 其他人则持怀疑态度。他们说，以前的繁荣与萧条周期告诉他们，从长远来看，挑选出最终可能主导特定行业的少数公司比看起来更困难。
Big technology companies—especially those that investors think are at the forefront of artificialintelligence—have raced past the broader stock market this year.Performance, year to dateSource: FactSet
NvidiaTeslaAdvanced Micro DevicesS&P 5002023June-250255075100125150175200225%
“I haven’t seen a technology cycle yet in my career in which the initial run-up isn’t more filled with hype and hope than the longer-term prospects,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, a Philadelphia-based wealth management firm.“在我的职业生涯中，我还没有看到一个技术周期，在这个周期中，最初的上涨并没有比长期前景更充满炒作和希望，”费城财富管理公司Glenmede的投资策略和研究主管Jason Pride说。
In the coming week, money managers will get a chance to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. They will get fresh data on existing-home sales and activity in the manufacturing industry.未来一周，基金经理将有机会听取美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔的意见，鲍威尔定于周三和周四在国会作证。他们将获得有关制造业现有房屋销售和活动的最新数据。
So far, the economy has proved more robust than many expected. Inflation has stayed hot, despite pulling back from multidecade highs reached last year. The combination of factors has pushed the Fed to signal it might raise interest rates at least two more times before the end of 2023.到目前为止，事实证明，经济比许多人预期的要强劲。尽管通胀从去年达到的数十年高点回落，但通胀仍然保持火热。这些因素的结合促使美联储暗示可能会在2023年底之前至少再加息两次。
Individual investors have poured money intoTesla and other technology-driven companies.Net purchases by individual investors, fiverecent trading sessionsSource: Vanda ResearchNote: Five trading sessions ended June 14, 2023.
TeslaNvidiaAdvancedMicroDevicesAmazonApple$0 billion$0.5$1$1.5
Last year, that kind of messaging would likely have spooked investors. Money managers blamed the market’s 2022 selloff—which caused megacap technology stocks to lose trillions of dollars in value—on the Fed’s move to raise interest rates rapidly. Their rationale: Investors often view technology companies as investments that pay off over the course of many years. When interest rates rise quickly, money managers can get higher returns in shorter time periods from other assets such as Treasurys. That can make stocks, especially relatively expensive technology shares, look less appealing.去年，这种信息可能会吓到投资者。基金经理将市场 2022 年的抛售（导致超大盘科技股价值损失数万亿美元）归咎于美联储迅速加息的举动。他们的理由是：投资者通常将科技公司视为在多年内获得回报的投资。当利率快速上升时，基金经理可以在较短的时间内从国债等其他资产中获得更高的回报。这可能会使股票，尤其是相对昂贵的科技股，看起来不那么有吸引力。
Fast-forward to 2023, and many investors no longer seem to view the Fed as a threat to the tech rally. The Nasdaq Composite is up 31% for the year, far outpacing the broader S&P 500, which has risen 15%. 快进到2023年，许多投资者似乎不再将美联储视为对科技股反弹的威胁。纳斯达克综合指数今年上涨了31%，远远超过了更广泛的标准普尔500指数，后者上涨了15%。
Why? One possible explanation is that investors doubt that the Fed will keep raising interest rates.为什么？一种可能的解释是，投资者怀疑美联储是否会继续加息。
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“The market’s basically saying, ‘We don’t believe you,’” said Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan. He noted that U.S. stocks rallied the day after last week’s Fed meeting, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite all closing at their highest levels since 2022.“市场基本上是在说，'我们不相信你，'”Hirtle Callaghan副首席投资官Brad Conger说。他指出，美国股市在上周美联储会议后的第二天反弹，标准普尔500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均收于2022年以来的最高水平。
Ives is among the analysts who believes the Fed is done.艾夫斯是认为美联储已经完成的分析师之一。
“I feel like there’s a better chance of me playing in the NBA than the Fed raising two more times, and I’m not a good basketball player,” he said.“我觉得我在NBA打球的机会比美联储再加息两次的机会更大，而且我不是一个好的篮球运动员，”他说。
Individual investors placed more money in Tesla than any other stock last week. PHOTO: ANNEGRET HILSE/REUTERS上周，个人投资者向特斯拉投入的资金比其他任何股票都多。照片：安妮格雷特·希尔斯/路透社
In theory the Fed, being close to done with its interest-rate hikes, should benefit technology companies, said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction for Morgan Stanley’s global investment office. Such companies often rely on borrowing large sums of money at attractive rates to achieve rapid growth, he said.从理论上讲，美联储即将完成加息，应该会让科技公司受益，摩根士丹利全球投资办公室模型投资组合构建主管Mike Loewengart表示。他说，这些公司通常依靠以有吸引力的利率借入大笔资金来实现快速增长。
“When rates fall, conditions start easing up for growth names,” Mr. Loewengart added.“当利率下降时，增长型股票的条件开始放松，”Loewengart先生补充道。
One threat to that line of thinking is that investors wind up being wrong about second-guessing the Fed. Inflation might not subside quickly enough for the central bank’s liking. That might force the central bank to follow through with further interest-rate increases, potentially putting the brakes on the stock rally.对这种思路的一个威胁是，投资者最终对美联储的猜测是错误的。 通胀可能不会迅速消退，以满足央行的喜好。这可能会迫使央行继续进一步加息，这可能会抑制股市反弹。
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Another potential threat to the rally hinges on something that investors might not have the answer to for quite some time: whether technology companies whose valuations have soared this year will wind up living up to the expectations of shareholders.对反弹的另一个潜在威胁取决于投资者可能在相当长的一段时间内无法找到答案的事情：今年估值飙升的科技公司最终是否会达到股东的期望。
The AI boom is “a very real factor in driving the sector and the market,” Loewengart said. “But it’s important to understand that technological innovation is not always going to translate into durable businesses or durable earnings.”人工智能热潮是“推动行业和市场的一个非常真实的因素，”Loewengart说。“但重要的是要明白，技术创新并不总是能转化为持久的业务或持久的收益。
Write to Akane Otani at [email protected] and Amina Niasse at [email protected]写信给 [email protected] 的Akane Otani和 [email protected] 的Amina Niasse